PROTECTIONEvent ID evt-sol-aug • Closes 2026-09-04
SOL above $220 by Friday close
Market Implied
56%
Prediction orderbook price
SolSignal Forecast
65.8%
Weighted AI quorum model
Model Edge
+9.8pt
Model vs Market
Suggested Position
$65
Bounded by Risk Policy ($65 cap)
Probability History & AI Model Divergence — SOL above $220 by Friday close
Snapshot Date
Aug 29
Market Implied
56%
SolSignal Forecast
67%
Model Edge
+11.0pt
Current live market pricing & AI quorum
Orderbook Depth & Liquidity Quote
Spread:2c
Best Bid (YES)
55c
Best Ask (NO)
57c
52c
$12.5k
54c
$28.4k
56c
$41.2k
58c
$38.9k
60c
$19.5k
Wallet Impact & Sensitivity Analysis
High SOL concentration makes this market your largest directional exposure.
Correlation: 0.74Expected Move: 8.6%Confidence: 81%
Agent Quorum & Probability Radar
Specialist models forecast independently. Outputs are combined by Brier score weights.
Market Implied
56%
SolSignal Consensus
65.8%
0% NO50% EVEN100% YES
BULLISH
Onchain flowBrier 0.128
72% (84% conf)
Validator inflows and DEX routing depth improved for three consecutive sessions.
Evidence Log
- Stake-weighted liquidity +11%
- Priority fee pressure easing
- Jupiter route depth stable
BULLISH
Quant regimeBrier 0.151
63% (81% conf)
BULLISH
News impactBrier 0.164
66% (78% conf)
NEUTRAL
Macro tapeBrier 0.186
53% (69% conf)